Alaska

Governor · Republican-held · Open seat · Top-four primary, ranked-choice general

Chance of winning

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

88%

Democrat · Model range 85–93%

Bernadette Wilson

12%

Republican · Model range 7–15%

Forecast margin

Kreiss-Tomkins +5.9

Poll average

Kreiss-Tomkins +7.8

9 polls · latest Oct 30

Cook Political Report

Lean D

Inside Elections

Tilt D

Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Lean D