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Senate

Forecast updated September 25

Chance of winning control

Democrats

78%

Model range 72–83%

Independents decide

1%

Republicans

21%

Model range 16–27%

Median

52

Democratic seats

80% range

49–54

Democratic seats

Majority

51

for control

Now

47 D · 53 R

Most likely to decide control

MaineJackson (D) vs. Collins (R)D 76%AlaskaPeltola (D) vs. Sullivan (R)D 59%IowaTurek (D) vs. Hinson (R)D 59%TexasTalarico (D) vs. Paxton (R)D 72%MichiganEl-Sayed (D) vs. Rogers (R)D 83%OhioSpecialBrown (D) vs. Husted (R)D 84%NebraskaOsborn (I) vs. Ricketts (R)R 70%FloridaSpecialNixon (D) vs. Moody (R)R 88%New HampshirePappas (D) vs. Sununu (R)D 98%North CarolinaCooper (D) vs. Whatley (R)D 99%

All 35 Senate races