2026 Midterm Forecast
Updated September 25, 2026
Senate
Chance of winning control
Democrats
78%
Model range 72–83%
Independents decide
1%
Republicans
21%
Model range 16–27%
Median
52
Democratic seats
80% range
49–54
Democratic seats
House
Chance of winning control
Democrats
94%
Model range 91–96%
Republicans
6%
Model range 4–9%
Median
234
Democratic seats
80% range
220–250
Democratic seats
Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
Democrats
79%
Model range 72–83%
Tied 25–25
12%
Republicans
10%
Model range 7–13%
Median
27
Democratic governors
80% range
25–30
Democratic governors
Races to watch
Maine SenateJackson (D) vs. Collins (R)D 76%Alaska SenatePeltola (D) vs. Sullivan (R)D 59%Iowa SenateTurek (D) vs. Hinson (R)D 59%Texas SenateTalarico (D) vs. Paxton (R)D 72%Michigan SenateEl-Sayed (D) vs. Rogers (R)D 83%Ohio SenateSpecialBrown (D) vs. Husted (R)D 84%PA-10Stelson (D) vs. Perry (R)D 87%OH-07Poindexter (D) vs. Miller (R)D 81%VA-02Luria (D) vs. Kiggans (R)D 80%AZ-06Mendoza (D) vs. Ciscomani (R)D 80%IA-03Garriott (D) vs. Nunn (R)D 83%PA-07Brooks (D) vs. Mackenzie (R)D 76%Nevada GovernorFord (D) vs. Lombardo (R)R 53%Ohio GovernorActon (D) vs. Ramaswamy (R)D 64%Georgia GovernorBottoms (D) vs. Jackson (R)D 68%Alaska GovernorKreiss-Tomkins (D) vs. Wilson (R)D 73%
Latest polls
Georgia SenateBig Data Poll (R) · Sep 21–23 · 678 LVOssoff +11.2Georgia GovernorBig Data Poll (R) · Sep 21–23 · 678 LVJackson +2Michigan SenateRasmussen Reports (R) · Sep 20–22 · 1,099 LVEl-Sayed +3North Carolina SenateRasmussen Reports (R) · Sep 20–22 · 1,047 LVCooper +7Maine GovernorNew York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena University · Sep 15–22 · 619 LVPingree +13Michigan GovernorNew York Times/Siena University · Sep 15–22 · 605 LVBenson +5New Hampshire GovernorNew York Times/Siena University · Sep 15–22 · 613 LVAyotte +11MI-04GBAO (D) · Sep 13–16 · 500 LVMcCann +1
National picture
Generic ballot
D+8.8
Polling average
Trump approval
−23
Net approval (approve minus disapprove)
Popular vote
D+7.6
House forecast · 80% range D+4.3 to D+10.8