2026 Midterm Forecast
Updated November 2, 2026
Senate
Chance of winning control
Democrats
79%
Model range 73–84%
Republicans
21%
Model range 16–27%
Median
52
Democratic seats
80% range
50–54
Democratic seats
House
Chance of winning control
Democrats
99%
Model range 97–99%
Republicans
1%
Model range 1–3%
Median
240
Democratic seats
80% range
226–254
Democratic seats
Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
Democrats
82%
Model range 77–87%
Tied 25–25
10%
Republicans
7%
Model range 5–10%
Median
27
Democratic governors
80% range
25–29
Democratic governors
Races to watch
Ohio SenateSpecialBrown (D) vs. Husted (R)D 83%Iowa SenateTurek (D) vs. Hinson (R)D 54%Texas SenateTalarico (D) vs. Paxton (R)D 73%Maine SenateJackson (D) vs. Collins (R)D 80%Alaska SenatePeltola (D) vs. Sullivan (R)D 57%Michigan SenateEl-Sayed (D) vs. Rogers (R)D 90%AZ-01Shah (D) vs. Feely (R)D 91%VA-02Luria (D) vs. Kiggans (R)D 90%PA-07Brooks (D) vs. Mackenzie (R)D 89%AZ-06Mendoza (D) vs. Ciscomani (R)D 91%PA-10Stelson (D) vs. Perry (R)D 92%OH-07Poindexter (D) vs. Miller (R)D 86%Georgia GovernorBottoms (D) vs. Jackson (R)D 58%Nevada GovernorFord (D) vs. Lombardo (R)R 61%Kansas GovernorHolscher (D) vs. Masterson (R)R 77%Texas GovernorHinojosa (D) vs. Abbott (R)R 87%
Latest polls
Iowa SenateNew York Times/Siena University · Oct 26 – Nov 1 · 705 LVTurek +1Kansas SenateNew York Times/Siena University · Oct 27 – Nov 1 · 736 LVHamilton +5Maine SenateNew York Times/Siena University · Oct 27 – Nov 1 · 714 LVJackson +6Michigan SenateResearch Co. · Oct 30 – Nov 1 · 450 LVEl-Sayed +2Michigan SenateNew York Times/Siena University · Oct 23 – Nov 1 · 1,011 LVEl-Sayed +11Minnesota SenateResearch Co. · Oct 30 – Nov 1 · 450 LVFlanagan +5Ohio SenateResearch Co. · Oct 30 – Nov 1 · 450 LVBrown +1Ohio SenateNew York Times/Siena University · Oct 26 – Nov 1 · 717 LVBrown +5
National picture
Generic ballot
D+9.0
Polling average
Trump approval
−24
Net approval (approve minus disapprove)
Popular vote
D+8.1
House forecast · 80% range D+5.1 to D+11.0